PayPerByte research · private preview
Brand Gravity Wellsworking title
Every brand in a category is a mass. Mass deforms a shared attention field. Basins, saddle points and escape velocities fall out of the same equation gravity uses — computed monthly from open data, and checked against Nielsen's Gauge with the statistics shown honestly, including the ones that are not significant yet.
Streaming, 2021-06 → 2026-06. The badge reads Real data · GDELT 7/12 brands because that is exactly what it is: 7 of 12 brands carry full-window GDELT affinity; the other 5 sit on neutral placeholders until their queries clear GDELT's rate limiting. The badge text is derived from the export's own coverage metadata — it cannot claim more than the data carries.
The model
Disclosed placeholders in this category: cohesion (M_c) and luminosity (L) have no free streaming data source yet, so both are fixed placeholders and Γ falls back to M; autonomy (M_u) currently only distinguishes covered from uncovered brands. Every placeholder is flagged per-state in the export and labeled in the tooltips — nothing placeholder is presented as measured.
Validation, honestly
Does computed mass track Nielsen Gauge share of TV time? Spearman correlations on the matched brand-months (high/medium-confidence Gauge rows), from the current build:
| View | ρ | p | Honest read |
|---|
| Pooled (44 brand-months, 9 brands) | 0.487 | 0.0008 | positive — but pseudo-replicated: 44 rows are not 44 independent observations |
| Brand-level (9 independent brands) | 0.60 | 0.088 | NOT significant at p<0.05 — the statistically honest headline |
| Within-brand, Netflix (13 months) | +0.57 * | — | * PRE-CORRECTION, NOT A CURRENT RESULT. The M_a fix (2026-09-01) invalidated this row's significance; it has not been recomputed. No brand yet has the months to test within-brand tracking. |
The pooled figure alone would overstate the evidence — its 44 rows come from 9 brands, so it is never cited without the brand-level line. What this is: evidence toward a real signal, improving as coverage grows. What it is not: proven external validation.
Data
All open sources: Wikimedia pageviews (12/12 brands), GDELT tone and volume (7/12 full-window; rate-limit-blocked queries retry weekly), a Nielsen Gauge series reconstructed from Nielsen's public releases with per-row confidence tiers (low-confidence rows excluded from validation by default), and Wikidata for roster lineage. Merger dates that are announcements rather than closings are labeled as such.
Private research preview — not linked, not indexed. Product name, category roadmap and go-live are open founder decisions.